Are modern hurricanes given the wrong Category?

Here are six reasons to assert that todays hurricanes are considerably over estimated when compared to past hurricanes, and how those storms were rated.

1. Dropsondes (Instruments dropped from hurricane hunter airplanes, guided by Doppler to be placed in the most intense part of the storm eye wall) cannot give the one minute sustained wind reading required to determine Hurricane classification, as they stay in a given guest far longer than a fixed instrument...

…“Turbulence studies have demonstrated that Lagrangian (parcel) wind measurements are inherently smoother than Eulerian (fixed-point anemometer) measurements (Gifford 1955), with dominant periods longer by a factor of about 3–4 (Angell et al. 1971)”.

2.  The “surface” readings have considerable variance, and are often “modeled”.  And that is controversial, with considerable debate on how best to do that. Currently the  high side of the model is, unsurprisingly, ascendant...

"Powell and Black (1990) recommended that an adjustment factor of 63%–73% be used to reduce 700-hPa wind speeds to the surface, based on comparisons of flight-level and buoy data (again, mostly outside of the eyewall). Operational practices at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have varied over time; in recent years surface winds have typically been taken to be 80%–90% of the flight-level wind”

That is a very large difference where a 100 mph at altitude wind can be considered to be from 62 to 90 mph at the surface. Also individual storm profiles are known to be highly variable, so no one model is right.  

3.  Modern hurricane readings predicted storm surge is often considerably over-modeled to actual results.  As an example...  " October 4, 1842 – A 955 mbar major hurricane which made landfall on northwestern Florida produced a 20-foot (6 m) storm surge at Cedar Key. Strong winds result in severe damage in Tallahassee."    (This is almost double Helena's peak 10.5’ storm surge, also at Cedar Key.) 

4.  The Safirr Simpdon scale used to categorize hurricane strength for wind damage (excluding storm surge, spin off tornado damage, and rain flood damage), consistently shows observed damage one to two categories below  how today's hurricanes are rated.  Past storms do match Saffir Simpson scale damage, as this, beyond the occasional well placed anemometer readings, was the actual method used to classify hurricanes, along with observed storm surge records.

5.  Modern media is very coy with exactly how the category estimates are made, and seldom if ever releases links to the actual flight readings taken right at landfall.  Also, by the time the eye wall hits land, close to 50 percent of the storm has already been on land for some time, and the storm is already weakening.

6. At landfall, especially in a storm like Milton with the eye wall broadening and breaking up, a hurricane hunter aircraft, guided by Doppler radar, will place the dropsconde directly in the strongest part of the storm, and get the highest wind speed possible, fail to confirm sustained wind speed, and get the lowest pressure reading possible. While everything happening on land is considerably less. This makes a huge difference in rating a storm. This site illustrates that message very well.  https://www.ventusky.com/

Go to the site site and watch a time series for Hurricane Milton.   Scroll through the time bar for the storm as it approaches land fall. Note how broad the eye becomes, and more importantly, even as the eye wall hits land, the most intense parts of the storm are all offshore on the west side, and southwest side.  With the eye evenly split over land and sea, all the strong readings are on Gulf side of the storm, and over the water, and the difference in wind speed to anything over the land is profound. 

On the Vetusky site, set for 10 m surface winds, the highest reading, on the west and southwest ocean sides of the storm is 155 Kph, and over land it is 95 kph. (96 and 59 mph respectively)  Now a hurricane aircraft is going to drop the dropsonde right in the strongest part of the storm, not over land, and, as mentioned, that will not give one minute sustained winds. In addition, while a well formed eye tends to have the same barometric pressure throughout the eye, a reforming eye, or a collapsing eye like with Milton, will have variable pressure, and again, guided by doppler, the hurricane hunters will read the lowest pressure part of the storm.  

So we have no idea what past storms would be rated if they had been monitored 24/7 out at sea, and at land fall, and with the same methods used now.   For instance, what would this storm have been today?  October 11, 1846 – The Great Havana Hurricane of 1846 passed near Key West with an estimated pressure of 902 mbar (hPa) and winds of possibly Category 5 status,[39] damaging or destroying all but 6 of the houses in the city. 50 are killed,[40] and damage amounts to $200,000 (1846 USD, $4.8 million 2008 USD). It is estimated it struck mainland Florida near Cedar Key,[41] producing severe flooding and strong winds.[6]

Or this one?  (note the actual storm surge which matches what was predicted for Tampa when they thought Milton would hit as a  Cat 4 or 5 ) ...  September 25, 1848 – The Great Gale of 1848 strikes near Tampa as a major hurricane with an estimated pressure of 948 mbar.[6] Considered one of the most significant hurricanes in the Tampa area, the 15 foot (4.6 m) storm surge from the hurricane destroyed much of Tampa and nearby Fort Brooke.[42)

Or the  double hitter that struck Florida 17 days later on October 11, 1848 – A major hurricane hits northwestern Florida, causing additional damage to the severe hurricane a few weeks before.[43] ( So media claims of what happened to Florida with Helena and Milton hitting so close being “unprecedented”, is false.)

So, from 1842 to 1848 Florida was struck by four major hurricanes, often producing much more storm surge and wind damage than Helena or Milton this year. Exactly zero of them were caused by CO2 emissions from people, cars, or cows.

In additon to past storms I mentioned above, Governor DeSantis had a great response when asked about Climate Change affecting Milton and Helena. ‘‘I think there have been about 27 hurricanes that have had lower barometric pressure on landfall than Milton did. And of those, 17 occurred, I think, prior to 1960.” If he went back 10 years further he could have added 4 more, and then 21 of the 31 strongest Florida hurricanes would have all occurred well before “Climate Change” claimes. and Milton would not make the list. He also stated, “And the most powerful hurricane on record since the 1850s in the state of Florida occurred in the 1930s, the Labor Day hurricane. Barometric pressure on that was 892 millibars. It totally wiped out the keys.” and he mentioned how “in 1928, the Okeechobe hurricane killed over 4,000 people.

.I am grateful that Dr Roy Spencer just posted this... 

”Hurricane Milton wind speeds at landfall: Another case of exaggerated estimates? I went through all of the highest sustained wind speeds the Hurricane Center listed for several hours around landfall time: The average observed by stations was 67 mph, and the average of the NHC official value was 114 mph. That’s a 47 mph difference. The best positioned station was just offshore of Venice Beach, which measured 78 mph at landfall, which was 42 mph lower than the NHC estimate (120 mph). The same thing happened with Helene: our UAH storm intercept team measured only 60 mph at landfall, whereas the NHC value was 140 mph.”” Dr Roy Spencer   (Note, this matches well with the Vetusky site linked above)

There is a reason they (the reporting media) does not usually, if ever, give the exact method and readings regarding where in the storm those measurements were gathered from hurricane flights right on landfall, and ground based wind speed readings are rarely relayed as well.

I would like to see such issued debated by the experts in the field. Open debate has been willfully destroyed in todays society. ( The “ministry of truth” wants a narrative, not a reasoned debate.) I have written President Trump’s campaign several times, suggesting that if elected again he start PSDs, or Presedential Sponsored Debates, where the issues are formally debated in front of the public. If the globalists refuse to come, have the debate anyway, with the globalist represented by a stand in making the media statements they currently make, but are not challenged on. I would love to see formal debates on Climate Change, COVID origins, the disease itself, the “vaccine”, the Biden administration response to Hurricane Helena, the modern categorizing of Hurricanes vs past storms, the border issues, crime, and even debates on the “fact checks” from the Presedential debates.

Also it would be quite easy to set up mobile anemometers in several locations capable of giving correct readings at landfall.  In other words the "Ministry of truth" could prove their assumptions, instead of hiding them.

As always, please correct me or show contrary evidence if you have it. As this is a time sensitive post to recent storms, I have not deeply researched it, so I am not fully confident in these assertions. I do know that hurricanes in Hurricane Alley are not unusuall, and Milton did not form as fast as other historic storms, so even that claim, is not accurate. See this link

As always, Where is the Emergency which documents that there has been no increase in Hurricanes or major hurricanes, and effectively debunks many other media claims about Climate Change.

All the Best…

David A